Tesla 2022 Q3 財報看法

Tesla昨天財報。股價目前跌6%上下。跌的原因多半是對於需求的擔心，以及營業額從Q1成長只有14%，雖然跟去年同期比成長56%。管理層對成長率預期仍沒有改變，覺得年成長平均50%沒問題，所以投資者就是看相信市場或是管理層的話。下面是說明會中Elon Musk對於需求說的一段話:

Let’s see, with respect to demand. We’ve got a lot of questions about demand in recent weeks. I can’t emphasize enough, we have excellent demand for Q4, and we expect to sell every car that we make for as far into future as we can see. So, the factories are running at full speed, and we’re delivering every car we make and keeping operating margins strong. We are still a very small percentage of the total vehicles on the road. Of the 2 billion cars and trucks on the road, we only have about 3.5 million. So, we’ve got a long way to go to even reach 1% of the global fleet.

Q4需求是強的。對於未來信心也不錯，雖然我認為短期未來需求沒人可以確定。Musk說目前世界在路上跑的車有2B，Tesla占3.5m (0.175%)，即使只要達到1%也還有蠻長一段路。不過好一點的數據應該是年出貨量。2021市場需求是66.7m，Tesla出了0.94m，也還是有很大成長空間。明年美國政府的通膨減低方案(Inflation Reduction Act)會有蠻大幫助，市場對這點似乎不在意，是蠻令人好奇的點。長遠來看，市場對一季的數字的反應不少時候是過度，何況這一季其實表現不差。下面來講估值，也講我對說明會的看法。

估值